Pakistan’s Inflation Slows, Giving Room for Rate Cut : Bloomberg

By Michael Dwyer

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s inflation slowed to a 16- month low in June, giving the central bank scope to reduce interest rates to prop up a faltering economy.

Consumer prices in South Asia’s second-largest economy rose 13.13 percent from a year earlier after gaining 14.39 percent in May, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said on its Web site today. That matched the median 13.1 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of nine economists.

Pakistan’s economy has ground to a near halt as the global recession erodes exports and investment and Taliban insurgents launch terrorist attacks in response to an intensified military campaign against Islamic extremists. The $146 billion economy may expand as little as 0.8 percent in the year to June 2010, according to HSBC Holdings Plc, the weakest pace since 1952.

Security concerns may “hamper growth over the coming year as investors and consumers further rein in spending,” said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. “The good news is that the central bank can begin to relax and start cutting interest rates, which should eventually nurse a recovery.”

State Bank of Pakistan Governor Syed Salim Raza has already begun reducing borrowing costs, slashing interest rates in April for the first time since 2002. The central bank is due to release its next monetary policy statement in Karachi at the end of this month.

‘Toughest Decision’

Pakistan was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a $7.6 billion rescue package in November after its foreign reserves shrank 75 percent in a year to $3.45 billion, its current-account deficit widened to a record and inflation soared to a three-decade high.

Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar raised the central bank’s policy rate by the most in more than a decade on Nov. 12, a move she described as “the toughest decision of my life,” in order to secure the IMF bailout.

Higher borrowing costs damped spending and investment in an economy already slowing amid the global downturn, which has reduced the nation’s overseas shipments and the amount of money that Pakistanis working abroad send home.

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Scope for Pakistan rate cuts if inflation falls-IMF: Reuters

WASHINGTON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Pakistan's monetary policy is appropriate but there would be room to lower interest rates if inflation declined, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

In a statement following a 12-day staff mission to review a $7.6 billion stand-by lending program, the IMF said it was "impressed" by Pakistan's resolve to sustain prudent policies, strengthen the social safety net and pursue reform.

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Macroeconomic Conditions signal turbulence: Dawn

A.B. Shahid

THE recent monetary policy announcement by the new State Bank governor sends a clear message: that there is little in terms of improvement in the state of the economy to warrant the much demanded monetary loosening.

Based on traditional logic, the stance is correct; while fiscal, trade and current account deficits are already high there may be further slippages. First, with Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collecting only Rs544 billion in first half of FY09, the full-year Rs1.36 trillion tax revenue target may not be met. Impliedly, public borrowing could stay high squeesing credit to the private sector, which won’t help contain the economic downswing.

Second, anticipated decline in trade deficit (courtesy falling imports) may be less than expected since: (i) export growth may decelerate due to global recession and infrastructure bottlenecks causing intermittent power and gas supply shortages; (ii) anticipated decline in oil import bill may turn out to be less than its projection.

Besides, deceleration in Consumer Price Index since September 2008 was moderate relative to Sensitive and Wholesale Price Indices, while Core Inflation Index (the peg for interest rates) remains what the governor called ‘stubborn’. According to him, ‘this signifies that demand pressures have not completely dissipated despite a slow down in economic activity.’

For once, SBP explicitly accepted that accumulation of excess demand since 2004 prepared the slope for inflation to slip uncontrollably, and in 2008 it caused multiple deficits, raised production costs all round, and blunted growth. To limit its fallout, SBP considered it expedient to continue its tight policy stance and to keep its discount rate unchanged at 15 per cent.

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Pakistan’s Inflation Slows After Four Rate Increases: Bloomberg

By Khalid Qayum

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s inflation eased from near a three-decade high in December after the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate four times in 2008.
Consumer prices in South Asia’s second-largest economy increased 23.34 percent from a year earlier after gaining 24.68 percent in November, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said in Islamabad today. Analysts were expecting a 22.6 percent increase.

Slower inflation may allow the State Bank of Pakistan to refrain from another rate increase in its next policy statement later this month, economists said. The central bank promised the International Monetary Fund as part of a $7.6 billion bailout to raise borrowing costs if foreign reserves drop too low.

“Given our declining inflationary numbers and stable exchange rate outlook, we expect interest rates to decline in coming months,” said Muhammad Imran Khan, an analyst at First Capital Securities Ltd. in Karachi. “An interim cut in the key policy rate between January and July cannot be ruled out.”

Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar on Nov. 12 raised the central bank’s key rate by 2 percentage points to 15 percent, describing the move as “the toughest decision of my life.” The bank pledged to the IMF to increase the rate again if foreign reserves fell below $1.165 billion at the end of December.

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IMF offers $6bn package: Dawn

By Anwar Iqbal
WASHINGTON, Oct 21: The United States has repeated its offer to help rescue Pakistan from the current financial crisis as diplomatic sources in Washington say the International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide $6 billion to the country to boost up its ailing economy.

�It�s hard for me to speculate,� said State Department�s deputy spokesman Robert Wood when asked if the IMF had agreed to offer a rescue package to Pakistan. But �we obviously will try to see what we can do to help Pakistan get through its financial crisis�.

Pakistan had �no choice but to seek help from the IMF,� said another State Department official. The official, who was not identified, was quoted in the US media as saying that Pakistani officials knew it would not be a popular decision in Pakistan but they had to go to the IMF.

�It won�t be popular with the public and it sends a lot of negative signals about Pakistan�s financial situation, its creditworthiness. But it�s a decision the Pakistanis are going to have to make,� he said.

The country�s inflation is running at around 25 per cent, and its foreign currency reserves are rapidly depleting, forcing the government to seek emergency cash advance from friendly countries and international financial institutions.

For more on this article, please click on the following link: IMF offers $6bn package: Dawn