Expect unexpected in Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia-Eurasia: Reuters

* 30 percent chance of military takeover in Pakistan

* 20 percent chance of social unrest, instability in Russia

* 15 percent chance of Ukraine turning to Russia

* 15 percent chance of Nigeria stability collapsing

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By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Nigeria and Mexico are the places where unexpected political change could have the most impact on world markets in 2009, the Eurasia Group risk consultancy said in a report on Monday.

In a special report on the world's top 10 "fat tails" -- relatively low-likelihood but potentially high-impact events -- Eurasia Group identified the chance of a military takeover in Pakistan as the most potentially significant unexpected development that might transform global geopolitics.

Other risks outlined included unrest in Russia, collapse in Nigeria and secularists lashing out in Turkey -- almost all made more likely by the impact of the global financial crisis.

"Each of these scenarios remains unlikely," Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer said in an e-mail.

"None of them represent our "call" for any of these countries. But in each case, the impact of the global economic meltdown... has dramatically increased the likelihood of (such scenarios) occurring from 2 or 3 percent six months ago to 10 to 20 percent -- or 30 percent in the case Pakistan -- now."

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